With the midterm elections now just two months away and campaigning starting to heat up, we thought we would share our current views on the political landscape and what it may mean for U.S equities. In our two Outlook 2014 publications for this year, we posited that the U.S. economy and corporate profits may drive the stock market higher and investors could turn their attention away from policymakers in Washington, who were such a distraction in 2013 and earlier in the current economic expansion.
We continue to see opportunities for further stock market gains over the course of 2014, as discussed in our Mid-Year Outlook 2014: Investor’s Almanac Field Notes, based upon fundamentals rather than the potential for sweeping legislative change. Although our analysis of stock market performance around midterm elections is very supportive of our positive stock market outlook, it is not a key driver of that outlook. Continued.